PlainClimate

Which states are warming fastest: PlainClimate analysis of NOAA data, published October 8, 2026

49 of 49 states with NOAA statewide records since 1925 or earlier have warmed; the median rate is 2.0°F per century. Alaska has warmed fastest (3.3°F per century), then Rhode Island (3.2°F); Alabama the least (0.3°F). In 44 states the warmest year on record came in 2010 or later. Since 1970 the median rate is 5.1°F per century, and 45 states have warmed at least twice as fast as over their whole record.

Every state, fastest warming first

Warming of the statewide annual mean, °F per century: over each state's whole record and since 1970 (NOAA nClimDiv)
  1. Alaska Whole record 3.3°F; Since 1970 7.8°F
  2. Rhode Island Whole record 3.2°F; Since 1970 6.2°F
  3. New Jersey Whole record 3.1°F; Since 1970 6.5°F
  4. Connecticut Whole record 2.9°F; Since 1970 6.2°F
  5. Maine Whole record 2.9°F; Since 1970 6.2°F
  6. Massachusetts Whole record 2.8°F; Since 1970 6.5°F
  7. New Hampshire Whole record 2.7°F; Since 1970 6.1°F
  8. Delaware Whole record 2.6°F; Since 1970 6.5°F
  9. Vermont Whole record 2.6°F; Since 1970 6.4°F
  10. Michigan Whole record 2.6°F; Since 1970 5.8°F
  11. North Dakota Whole record 2.6°F; Since 1970 3.8°F
  12. Minnesota Whole record 2.5°F; Since 1970 5.4°F
  13. Utah Whole record 2.5°F; Since 1970 5.9°F
  14. California Whole record 2.3°F; Since 1970 5.3°F
  15. Oregon Whole record 2.3°F; Since 1970 4.4°F
  16. Wyoming Whole record 2.3°F; Since 1970 5.1°F
  17. Colorado Whole record 2.3°F; Since 1970 5.4°F
  18. Montana Whole record 2.3°F; Since 1970 4.6°F
  19. Maryland Whole record 2.2°F; Since 1970 5.8°F
  20. Arizona Whole record 2.1°F; Since 1970 6.1°F
  21. Nevada Whole record 2.1°F; Since 1970 5.3°F
  22. New York Whole record 2.1°F; Since 1970 6.0°F
  23. South Dakota Whole record 2.0°F; Since 1970 3.8°F
  24. Wisconsin Whole record 2.0°F; Since 1970 5.7°F
  25. New Mexico Whole record 2.0°F; Since 1970 6.7°F
  26. Florida Whole record 1.8°F; Since 1970 5.0°F
  27. Pennsylvania Whole record 1.7°F; Since 1970 5.5°F
  28. Idaho Whole record 1.7°F; Since 1970 5.0°F
  29. Nebraska Whole record 1.7°F; Since 1970 4.3°F
  30. Washington Whole record 1.7°F; Since 1970 4.1°F
  31. Ohio Whole record 1.5°F; Since 1970 5.5°F
  32. Kansas Whole record 1.4°F; Since 1970 4.3°F
  33. Texas Whole record 1.4°F; Since 1970 6.2°F
  34. Illinois Whole record 1.4°F; Since 1970 4.7°F
  35. Virginia Whole record 1.4°F; Since 1970 5.1°F
  36. Indiana Whole record 1.3°F; Since 1970 4.9°F
  37. Iowa Whole record 1.2°F; Since 1970 4.2°F
  38. North Carolina Whole record 1.1°F; Since 1970 4.7°F
  39. West Virginia Whole record 1.0°F; Since 1970 5.1°F
  40. South Carolina Whole record 1.0°F; Since 1970 4.4°F
  41. Missouri Whole record 1.0°F; Since 1970 4.3°F
  42. Georgia Whole record 0.8°F; Since 1970 4.5°F
  43. Oklahoma Whole record 0.8°F; Since 1970 4.6°F
  44. Kentucky Whole record 0.8°F; Since 1970 5.1°F
  45. Louisiana Whole record 0.7°F; Since 1970 5.1°F
  46. Tennessee Whole record 0.6°F; Since 1970 4.9°F
  47. Arkansas Whole record 0.6°F; Since 1970 4.4°F
  48. Mississippi Whole record 0.4°F; Since 1970 5.1°F
  49. Alabama Whole record 0.3°F; Since 1970 4.7°F
Fitted change of the statewide annual mean since the record began and since 1970 (°F per century), and 2021-2025 against the 1991-2020 normal
StateSincePer centurySince 19702021-2025 vs normalWarmest year
Alaska19253.3°F7.8°F+0.4°F2019
Rhode Island18953.2°F6.2°F+1.4°F2012
New Jersey18953.1°F6.5°F+1.3°F2012
Connecticut18952.9°F6.2°F+1.5°F2012
Maine18952.9°F6.2°F+2.1°F2024
Massachusetts18952.8°F6.5°F+1.8°F2012
New Hampshire18952.7°F6.1°F+1.9°F2024
Delaware18952.6°F6.5°F+0.9°F2012
Vermont18952.6°F6.4°F+1.9°F2024
Michigan18952.6°F5.8°F+1.7°F2024
North Dakota18952.6°F3.8°F+1.2°F1987
Minnesota18952.5°F5.4°F+1.6°F2024
Utah18952.5°F5.9°F+1.1°F2025
California18952.3°F5.3°F+0.9°F2014
Oregon18952.3°F4.4°F+1.0°F2015
Wyoming18952.3°F5.1°F+0.9°F2012
Colorado18952.3°F5.4°F+0.7°F2012
Montana18952.3°F4.6°F+1.1°F1934
Maryland18952.2°F5.8°F+1.2°F2024
Arizona18952.1°F6.1°F+0.8°F2017
Nevada18952.1°F5.3°F+0.9°F2025
New York18952.1°F6.0°F+1.5°F2024
South Dakota18952.0°F3.8°F+1.4°F2012
Wisconsin18952.0°F5.7°F+1.6°F2024
New Mexico18952.0°F6.7°F+1.1°F2017
Florida18951.8°F5.0°F+1.2°F2015
Pennsylvania18951.7°F5.5°F+1.4°F2024
Idaho18951.7°F5.0°F+0.9°F1934
Nebraska18951.7°F4.3°F+1.4°F2012
Washington18951.7°F4.1°F+0.9°F2015
Ohio18951.5°F5.5°F+1.4°F2024
Kansas18951.4°F4.3°F+1.2°F2012
Texas18951.4°F6.2°F+1.6°F2024
Illinois18951.4°F4.7°F+1.3°F2012
Virginia18951.4°F5.1°F+1.1°F2024
Indiana18951.3°F4.9°F+1.2°F2024
Iowa18951.2°F4.2°F+1.6°F2012
North Carolina18951.1°F4.7°F+0.8°F2019
West Virginia18951.0°F5.1°F+1.0°F2024
South Carolina18951.0°F4.4°F+0.7°F2017
Missouri18951.0°F4.3°F+1.4°F2012
Georgia18950.8°F4.5°F+1.0°F2019
Oklahoma18950.8°F4.6°F+1.3°F2012
Kentucky18950.8°F5.1°F+1.1°F2024
Louisiana18950.7°F5.1°F+1.3°F2023
Tennessee18950.6°F4.9°F+1.1°F1921
Arkansas18950.6°F4.4°F+1.3°F2012
Mississippi18950.4°F5.1°F+1.5°F2023
Alabama18950.3°F4.7°F+1.1°F1921

Has warming sped up since 1970?

Fitted over 1970-2025 alone, the median state warms at 5.1°F per century against 2.0°F over its whole record. 45 of 49 states have warmed at least twice as fast since 1970. The fastest since 1970: Alaska (7.8°F), New Mexico (6.7°F), New Jersey (6.5°F), Delaware (6.5°F), Massachusetts (6.5°F); the slowest: South Dakota (3.8°F), North Dakota (3.8°F), Washington (4.1°F). 44 states had their warmest year in 2010 or later.

How this was measured

For each state, the ordinary least-squares slope of NOAA's statewide annual mean temperature (nClimDiv, area-weighted from a 5 km grid of station data) over every complete year from the start of the record (1895 for the contiguous states, 1925 for Alaska) to 2025, stated per century, and the same fit over 1970-2025 alone. The last-five-years column is the mean of 2021-2025 against the 1991-2020 statewide normal.

What it cannot tell you

A straight line through a century summarizes; single years swing well above and below it. Hawaii's statewide series begins in 1991, too short for a century rate, so it is left out; Alaska's begins in 1925 and is included. Statewide values are area-weighted, so a state's rate is not its cities' rate.

Source: NOAA NCEI nClimDiv statewide series (Climate at a Glance); data files.

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